Velocity to date
Spend in the category divided by days elapsed, carried forward to the end of the cycle. Deliberately simple, and for most categories the single most honest indicator you have on day 12.
Module 03
Where the cycle lands if nothing changes.
Tracking tells you where a category stands. Forecasting tells you where it ends up. The engine takes spend velocity to date, adds the obligations it already knows about, and projects the close of the cycle, so a category can be flagged as trending over while it is still comfortably inside its limit.
HorizonCurrent and next cycle
BasisVelocity plus commitments
OutputProjected close and breach day
What the forecast is built from
Three inputs, no crystal ball.
A forecast that cannot be reconstructed by hand is a forecast nobody will act on. These are the only three things feeding it.
Known commitments
Recurring charges with a billing date still ahead, pending authorizations, and scheduled obligations inside the cycle. These are added at face value rather than smoothed into a daily average.
Seasonal shape of the category
Some categories are back-loaded by nature. Where you have enough history, the projection is weighted by how that category has historically distributed across a cycle rather than assuming a flat line.
Projected close
The breach day is the number that changes behaviour.
Knowing Travel will finish at 187 percent is useful. Knowing it crosses its limit on day 16 is what gets the decision made, because there are fourteen days left to make it in.
| Category | Current pace | Projected close | Limit | Lands at | Crosses limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marketing | 5,200 / day | 1,56,000 | 1,20,000 | 130% | Day 23 |
| Payroll | Fixed | 4,80,000 | 4,80,000 | 100% | Day 30 |
| Software | 1,920 / day | 57,600 | 85,000 | 68% | Not projected |
| Travel | 9,333 / day | 2,80,000 | 1,50,000 | 187% | Day 16 |
| Supplies | 1,220 / day | 36,600 | 60,000 | 61% | Not projected |
Pace flags fire before threshold flags
A threshold flag waits for the category to actually reach its near-limit percentage. A pace flag fires the moment the projection crosses the limit, which is usually days or weeks earlier. Both are available, and you decide which categories warrant the earlier warning.
Travel, threshold flagDay 24
Travel, pace flagDay 11
Days of warning gained13
Forecasts feed the reallocation suggestion
A reallocation source is only genuinely free if it is also projected to finish under. The engine will not propose moving room out of a category that currently reads 68 percent but is on pace to close at 104, because that trades one overage for two.
- Sources ranked by projected unused room, not current room
- Fixed categories like payroll are excluded from sourcing
- Amount proposed covers the projected gap, not just today's
Near-term cash position, not only budget variance
Budget is a plan. Cash is a constraint. The same velocity and commitment data rolls up into a near-term view of what is scheduled to leave the connected accounts over the coming weeks, so a month that balances on paper does not catch you short in the third week.
- Scheduled outflow by week, built from known commitments
- The tightest point in the cycle, named with its date
- Next-cycle carry, where limits roll unspent room forward
This is a projection of outflow from spend data. It is not a treasury forecast and it does not model your receivables or financing.
What a forecast is not
A projection is arithmetic on the spend you have already made plus the obligations you already carry. It does not know about the campaign you are about to launch or the trip you just cancelled.
So treat it as what it is: an early reading that buys you time to decide, not a prediction that decides for you.
Where the decision actually happensElsewhere in the engine
Category Budget Tracking
Live spend against every category limit, with status the moment it changes.
OpenExpense Categorization
Transactions sorted into your categories as they settle, with override control.
OpenApproval Workflows
Route spend and reallocation decisions to the person who owns the budget.
OpenSpend Reports
Variance to budget by category, period over period, export ready.
OpenPick your month end
There are only two ways to find out you went over budget.
One of them still lets you do something about it.
The statement routeDay 31
You read the number after it is spent
The category closed at 112 percent. The money left the account three weeks ago. The only decision available now is which line to explain it against.
- Overage discovered at close
- Reallocation window already gone
- Next cycle starts on the same blind footing
The BudgetGaga routeDay 11
You read the pace while it still bends
At 74 percent on day 11 the category is flagged as trending over, with an under-spent line named as the source. You approve the shift, or you tighten the spend. Either way you chose.
- Flagged the moment the pace breaks
- Reallocation source named, not hunted for
- Every move still waits on your approval